Delphi Method

Posted in Operations and Supply Chain Terms, Total Reads: 2065
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Definition: Delphi Method

It is a structured communication process to survey and forecast. It was developed by RAND Corporation in 1950s. Here the survey is conducted in minimum of 2 rounds. After the 1st round of survey, the results are declared and given as feedback. This is done anonymously such that the participants are not biased. After taking a look at the results, the participants can either change their assessment or stick to their original assessment.

If a third round is conducted, the 2nd round results would be given as feedback. I.e. in the later rounds, the previous round results will be given as feedback. These reiterations are done on experts such that their assessment is improved in each round. A consensus is tried to be reached. But if a consensus is not reached after a certain round then statistical methods such as mean, median etc. would be used to finalize the result.

 

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